Started Oct 04, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

Before 2018, which country will be the first to experience two or more anti-government mass protests within one week?

An anti-government mass protest is one which involves more than 1,000 participants, and at which participants call for the removal of a national political leader or leaders, change in how national political leaders are selected, or secession. For the question to resolve as yes, the second protest must begin while the first protest is ongoing or within a week of the first protest ending. If none of the countries listed in the answer options experience two or more anti-government mass protests within a week before 2018, the question will resolve with the answer "None of the above". Recent examples of mass protests include the ones that occurred in Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen in 2010-2011. Recommended Questions Will Egypt’s GDP growth rate for their 2016/2017 fiscal year equal or exceed 5%? How many worker protests will the China Labor Bulletin record from 1 May 2016 to 1 November 2016?


None of the countries in question experienced two or more anti-government mass protests within one week. This question closed as "none of the above" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Egypt 1%
Morocco 0%
Jordan 0%
Tunisia 0%
None of the above 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 303
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 1424
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.244
2.
-0.239
3.
-0.237
4.
-0.23
5.
-0.223

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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