Before 21 March 2024, will the Federal Reserve announce a cut in the US federal funds rate?

Started Jun 30, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 21, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As the Federal Reserve increases interest rates to combat inflation, there are concerns whether the US will be pushed into recession (USA Today, AP, CNBC). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market deteriorates, if inflation falls) would not count. The last time the Federal Reserve announced a cut to the US federal funds rate was 15 March 2020 (Federal Reserve).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 21 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.51%
No 98.49%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 152
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 668
Average for questions older than 6 months: 584
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.057587
2.
-0.056564
3.
-0.05525
4.
-0.05525
5.
-0.05448

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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