Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the administrative services building in Bakhmut, Ukraine, be under Ukrainian control on 8 August 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Started Jul 18, 2023 10:00AM UTC
Closed Aug 08, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Fighting over the ruins of the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region continues (MSN, Moscow Times, Newsweek). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address of the building (Tsentr Nadannya Administratyvnykh Posluh Mista Bakhmut) is Myru St, 44, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500, to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. The location identified by the interactive map will be used for resolution, and whether the building is damaged or destroyed would be immaterial. "Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives" would count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 8 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3%
No 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 83
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 215
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.029819
2.
-0.029819
4.
-0.027829
5.
-0.026486

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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