How many of Ballotpedia's 13 "noteworthy" Republican candidates as of 20 July 2023 will have ceased to be presidential candidates as of 28 September 2023?
Closed Sep 29, 2023 07:01AM UTC
As of 20 July 2023, the 13 "noteworthy" Republican candidates were Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Larry Elder, Nikki Haley, Will Hurd, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, Corey Stapleton, Francis Suarez, and Donald Trump (Ballotpedia, Politico). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that a candidate no longer seeks the Republican Party nomination for president or that a candidate is suspending his or her campaign.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "None or 1" with a closing date of 29 September 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| None or 1 | 80% | |
| 2 or 3 | 20% | |
| 4 or 5 | 0% | |
| 6 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 48 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 199 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 480 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
