How many of Ballotpedia's 13 "noteworthy" Republican candidates as of 20 July 2023 will have ceased to be presidential candidates as of 28 September 2023?

Started Jul 21, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 29, 2023 07:01AM UTC

As of 20 July 2023, the 13 "noteworthy" Republican candidates were Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Larry Elder, Nikki Haley, Will Hurd, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, Corey Stapleton, Francis Suarez, and Donald Trump (Ballotpedia, Politico). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that a candidate no longer seeks the Republican Party nomination for president or that a candidate is suspending his or her campaign.

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The question closed "None or 1" with a closing date of 29 September 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
None or 1 80%
2 or 3 20%
4 or 5 0%
6 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 199
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.366313
2.
-0.366037
3.
-0.266899
4.
-0.191923
5.
-0.164634

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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