Will President Joe Biden cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Democratic nomination for US president before 3 February 2024?

Started Jul 21, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 03, 2024 08:01AM UTC

President Biden announced in April 2023 that he was running for reelection, there's ongoing speculation that he may drop out of the race (CNN, Guardian). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Biden no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 3 February 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2%
No 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 196
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 639
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.015
3.
-0.015
4.
-0.015
5.
-0.015

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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