Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Who will win the 2024 Panamanian presidential election?

Started Jul 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 05, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Among the candidates is former President Ricardo Martinelli, who was leading in the polls as of May 2023 before being sentenced in July 2023 to more than 10 years in prison for corruption charges (Voice of America, Rio Times, Brazilian Report, CNN [in Spanish], Twitter [in Spanish]). The next Panamanian presidential election is scheduled for 5 May 2024 (International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance).

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The question closed "Someone else" with a closing date of 5 May 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
José Isabel Blandón 1%
José Gabriel Carrizo 1%
Ricardo Martinelli 0%
Rómulo Roux 1%
Martín Torrijos 1%
Someone else 96%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 27
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 153
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.530759
2.
-0.173659
3.
-0.151615
4.
-0.144038
5.
-0.103975

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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