Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Who will win the 2024 Panamanian presidential election?
Closed May 05, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Among the candidates is former President Ricardo Martinelli, who was leading in the polls as of May 2023 before being sentenced in July 2023 to more than 10 years in prison for corruption charges (Voice of America, Rio Times, Brazilian Report, CNN [in Spanish], Twitter [in Spanish]). The next Panamanian presidential election is scheduled for 5 May 2024 (International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Someone else" with a closing date of 5 May 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| José Isabel Blandón | 1% | |
| José Gabriel Carrizo | 1% | |
| Ricardo Martinelli | 0% | |
| Rómulo Roux | 1% | |
| Martín Torrijos | 1% | |
| Someone else | 96% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 27 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 153 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 584 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
