Between 4 August 2023 and 28 December 2023, how many Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip will be killed by Israeli forces, according to B’Tselem?

Started Aug 04, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 29, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Rising tensions between Israel and Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip have observers concerned about a third "Intifada," or uprising (AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, Britannica - Intifada). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data once published by B’Tselem through 28 December 2023 (B'Tselem, "Gaza Strip" and "West Bank (including East Jerusalem)," conditions set in link; click download button in the "Palestinians killed by Israeli forces" chart for xlsx file). "Date of event" entries between and including 4 August 2023 and 28 December 2023 will count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

This question has ended, but is awaiting resolution by an admin.

Possible Answer Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 25 0%
Between 25 and 50, inclusive 0%
More than 50 but fewer than 100 0%
Between 100 and 250, inclusive 1%
More than 250 but fewer than 500 3%
500 or more 96%
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username