Before 4 November 2023, which candidate, excluding Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, will next have 10.0% or more of 2024 Republican presidential nomination support, according to RealClearPolitics?

Started Aug 04, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 04, 2023 07:01AM UTC

As of early August 2023, former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis were well-ahead of other Republican presidential challengers in the polls (Politico, NBC News, CBS News). The question will be suspended on 3 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by RealClearPolitics' RCP Poll Average for the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination (RealClearPolitics, set to "3M"). Chart data will be accessed for resolution as soon as data for 3 November 2024 are first reported, if necessary. In the event of a tie, the candidate who most recently had a lower level of support will be considered to have been the next to have 10.0% or more.

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The question closed "No other candidate will have 10.0% or more before 4 November 2023" with a closing date of 4 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Nikki Haley 8%
Mike Pence 0%
Vivek Ramaswamy 2%
Tim Scott 1%
Someone else 2%
No other candidate will have 10.0% or more before 4 November 2023 87%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 78
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 527
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 480
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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