Before 4 November 2023, which candidate, excluding Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, will next have 10.0% or more of 2024 Republican presidential nomination support, according to RealClearPolitics?
Closed Nov 04, 2023 07:01AM UTC
As of early August 2023, former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis were well-ahead of other Republican presidential challengers in the polls (Politico, NBC News, CBS News). The question will be suspended on 3 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by RealClearPolitics' RCP Poll Average for the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination (RealClearPolitics, set to "3M"). Chart data will be accessed for resolution as soon as data for 3 November 2024 are first reported, if necessary. In the event of a tie, the candidate who most recently had a lower level of support will be considered to have been the next to have 10.0% or more.
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The question closed "No other candidate will have 10.0% or more before 4 November 2023" with a closing date of 4 November 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Nikki Haley | 8% | |
| Mike Pence | 0% | |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 2% | |
| Tim Scott | 1% | |
| Someone else | 2% | |
| No other candidate will have 10.0% or more before 4 November 2023 | 87% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 78 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 527 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 480 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
