Terry-Smith asks:

Before 1 January 2024, how many of the "Big Three" US automakers will have a work stoppage (either a strike or a lockout) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union?

Started Aug 11, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 15, 2023 04:01AM UTC
Tags

In July 2023, the UAW (officially the "International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America") and the "Big Three" US automakers (Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, which includes Chrysler) kicked off negotiations on new collective bargaining agreements (CNBC). The current contracts are set to expire on 14 September 2023, and both sides are preparing for a potentially contentious fight (CNN). A work stoppage need not include all of an automaker's employees represented by the UAW to count, but a strike must have been approved by the UAW International Executive Board and/or International President per Article 50 of the UAW constitution (UAW, GM Authority, Key Differences). The question would close early upon the ratification of new collective bargaining agreements with all three automakers.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "3" with a closing date of 14 September 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 9%
1 8%
2 12%
3 71%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 22
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 63
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.649713
2.
-0.636136
3.
-0.591995
4.
-0.509838
5.
-0.411705

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username