What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for April 2024?

Started Aug 11, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

While the US unemployment rate remained near record lows as of July 2023, the pace of new job creation and the eventual impacts of interest rate hikes are expected to put pressure on employment (US News & World Report, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2024 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) when first released, expected in May 2024 (BLS).

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The question closed "3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.0%" with a closing date of 1 May 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 3.5% 0%
3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.0% 94%
4.0% or higher, but lower than 4.5% 6%
4.5% or higher, but lower than 5.0% 0%
5.0% or higher, but lower than 5.5% 0%
5.5% or higher, but lower than 6.0% 0%
6.0% or higher 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 41
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 221
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.047122
2.
-0.04126
3.
-0.040855
4.
-0.037641
5.
-0.036796

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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