What will be the monthly percentage change in US retail sales for December 2023?

Started Aug 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Retail sales is a measure of consumer demand for finished goods in an economy (Investopedia, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using US Census Bureau Retail Trade and Food Services data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in January 2024 (FRED). In December 2022, the monthly percentage change in US retail sales was -0.7%.

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The question closed "Up by at least 0.0%, but less than 0.8%" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Down by more than 0.8% 2%
Down by up to 0.8%, but less than 0.0% 14%
Up by at least 0.0%, but less than 0.8% 67%
Up by at least 0.8%, but less than 1.6% 14%
Up by at least 1.6%, but less than 2.4% 2%
Up by 2.4% or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 40
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 165
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.085
2.
-0.084
3.
-0.069
4.
-0.068
5.
-0.036

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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