What percentage of new, light-duty zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) sold in California in 2023 will be Tesla vehicles, according to the California Energy Commission (CEC)?

Started Aug 25, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The California car market is by far in the lead for ZEV sales in the US (Teslarati, San Francisco Standard, Autoweek). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data for all of 2023 as reported by the CEC (CEC). Historical data may be retrieved using the "Year" and "Make" filters under "SELECT FILTERS." For 2022, the CEC reported Tesla sales of 212,586 vehicles and total light-duty ZEV sales of 345,818, for a Tesla percentage of ZEV sales of 61.47%. An xlsx file with historical data current as of the launch of this question may be downloaded here: California ZEV Sales 2011-2023YTD.xlsx.

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The question closed "Between 48.0% and 54.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 48.0% 3%
Between 48.0% and 54.0%, inclusive 59%
More than 54.0% but less than 60.0% 25%
Between 60.0% and 66.0%, inclusive 13%
More than 66.0% 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 16
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 44
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.078702
2.
-0.071477
3.
-0.060341
4.
-0.041274
5.
-0.026058

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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