404_NOT_FOUND asks:

Before 26 February 2024, will a NATO member invoke either Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by Belarus?

Started Aug 25, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 26, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Tensions have risen between Russian ally Belarus and the bordering NATO member states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland as the Belarusian military and Wagner Group forces began drills in the west of the country (Guardian, NBC News, Euronews). Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which created NATO, states that any member can call for consultations when they believe they are under threat, while Article 5 covers collective defense in the event of an armed attack against a member (NATO - Article 4, NATO - Article 5). Article 4 was last invoked in February 2022 by several NATO member states in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine (CNBC TV18).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 26 February 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2%
No 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 143
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 434
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.004583
2.
-0.004583
3.
-0.004532
4.
-0.003783
5.
-0.003709

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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