Before 1 March 2024, will a new nationwide national or public health emergency related to COVID-19 be declared by the US federal government?

Started Sep 01, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
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On 31 January 2020, HHS Secretary Azar declared a public health emergency under the Public Health Service Act related to COVID-19, which was repeatedly extended through 11 May 2023 (HHS.gov - COVID Public Health Emergency, HHS.gov - End of COVID Public Health Emergency). President Trump later declared a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act on 13 March 2020 (Trump White House Archives). A declaration must be made pursuant to either the Public Health Service Act or the National Emergencies Act to count (PHE.gov - Public Health Service Act, Ballotpedia - National Emergencies Act). The question would close upon the date of the declaration, irrespective of a determination that a national or public health emergency existed since a prior date.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 87
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 215
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000242
2.
-0.000242
3.
-0.000242
4.
-0.000242
5.
-0.000242

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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