Before 1 March 2024, will a new nationwide national or public health emergency related to COVID-19 be declared by the US federal government?

Started Sep 01, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

On 31 January 2020, HHS Secretary Azar declared a public health emergency under the Public Health Service Act related to COVID-19, which was repeatedly extended through 11 May 2023 ( - COVID Public Health Emergency, - End of COVID Public Health Emergency). President Trump later declared a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act on 13 March 2020 (Trump White House Archives). A declaration must be made pursuant to either the Public Health Service Act or the National Emergencies Act to count ( - Public Health Service Act, Ballotpedia - National Emergencies Act). The question would close upon the date of the declaration, irrespective of a determination that a national or public health emergency existed since a prior date.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 March 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 87
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 215
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username