Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will be the water level of Panama Canal reservoir Gatun Lake on 1 May 2024?
Closing May 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Low water levels of Gatun Lake have led to limits on the use of the Panama Canal, which supports roughly a quarter of a trillion dollars of trade annually (CNBC, AP). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Panama Canal Authority (Panama Canal Authority - Gatun Water Level Indicators, download "Gatun Lake Historical Water Levels (CSV)"). Other data are also available on the Gatun Lake Water Levels dashboard (Panama Canal Authority - Gatun Lake Water Levels Dashboard).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
NOTE 31 October 2023: "Lake Gatun" should instead read as "Gatun Lake." The name of the lake has been updated in the question stem.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower than 72.00 ft | 1.00% | +1.00% | +1.00% | +1.00% |
| Between 72.00 ft and 74.00 ft, inclusive | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Higher than 74.00 ft but lower than 76.00 ft | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Between 76.00 ft and 78.00 ft, inclusive | 6.00% | 0% | +6.00% | +5.00% |
| Higher than 78.00 ft but lower than 80.00 ft | 5.00% | -1.00% | -7.00% | -27.00% |
| Between 80.00 ft and 82.00 ft, inclusive | 87.00% | 0% | 0% | +21.00% |
| Higher than 82.00 ft | 1.00% | 0% | 0% | 0% |