Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the water level of Panama Canal reservoir Lake Gatun on 1 May 2024?

Started Sep 15, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Low water levels of Lake Gatun have led to limits on the use of the Panama Canal, which supports roughly a quarter of a trillion dollars of trade annually (CNBC, AP). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Panama Canal Authority (Panama Canal Authority - Gatun Water Level Indicators, download "Gatun Lake Historical Water Levels (CSV)"). Other data are also available on the Gatun Lake Water Levels dashboard (Panama Canal Authority - Gatun Lake Water Levels Dashboard).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Lower than 72.00 ft 4.00% -3.00%
Between 72.00 ft and 74.00 ft, inclusive 4.00% -2.00%
Higher than 74.00 ft but lower than 76.00 ft 6.00% -1.00%
Between 76.00 ft and 78.00 ft, inclusive 10.00% -1.00%
Higher than 78.00 ft but lower than 80.00 ft 20.00% +1.00%
Between 80.00 ft and 82.00 ft, inclusive 40.00% +7.00%
Higher than 82.00 ft 16.00% -1.00%

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