Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will be the water level of Panama Canal reservoir Lake Gatun on 1 May 2024?
Closing May 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Low water levels of Lake Gatun have led to limits on the use of the Panama Canal, which supports roughly a quarter of a trillion dollars of trade annually (CNBC, AP). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Panama Canal Authority (Panama Canal Authority - Gatun Water Level Indicators, download "Gatun Lake Historical Water Levels (CSV)"). Other data are also available on the Gatun Lake Water Levels dashboard (Panama Canal Authority - Gatun Lake Water Levels Dashboard).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 72.00 ft | 4.00% | -3.00% |
| Between 72.00 ft and 74.00 ft, inclusive | 4.00% | -2.00% |
| Higher than 74.00 ft but lower than 76.00 ft | 6.00% | -1.00% |
| Between 76.00 ft and 78.00 ft, inclusive | 10.00% | -1.00% |
| Higher than 78.00 ft but lower than 80.00 ft | 20.00% | +1.00% |
| Between 80.00 ft and 82.00 ft, inclusive | 40.00% | +7.00% |
| Higher than 82.00 ft | 16.00% | -1.00% |