Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the water level of Panama Canal reservoir Gatun Lake on 1 May 2024?

Started Sep 15, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Low water levels of Gatun Lake have led to limits on the use of the Panama Canal, which supports roughly a quarter of a trillion dollars of trade annually (CNBC, AP). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Panama Canal Authority (Panama Canal Authority - Gatun Water Level Indicators, download "Gatun Lake Historical Water Levels (CSV)"). Other data are also available on the Gatun Lake Water Levels dashboard (Panama Canal Authority - Gatun Lake Water Levels Dashboard).

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NOTE 31 October 2023: "Lake Gatun" should instead read as "Gatun Lake." The name of the lake has been updated in the question stem.


The question closed "Between 80.00 ft and 82.00 ft, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 May 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 72.00 ft 0%
Between 72.00 ft and 74.00 ft, inclusive 0%
Higher than 74.00 ft but lower than 76.00 ft 0%
Between 76.00 ft and 78.00 ft, inclusive 6%
Higher than 78.00 ft but lower than 80.00 ft 2%
Between 80.00 ft and 82.00 ft, inclusive 91%
Higher than 82.00 ft 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 44
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 339
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.194336
2.
-0.179644
3.
-0.163225
4.
-0.119915
5.
-0.114065

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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