probahilliby asks:

When will all work stoppages (either strikes or lockouts) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and the "Big Three" US automakers cease?

Started Sep 22, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 30, 2023 10:00PM UTC

In September 2023, the UAW (officially the "International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America") began targeted strikes against the "Big Three" US automakers (Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, which includes Chrysler) after the expiration of their respective collective bargaining agreements (NBC News, CNBC, Key Differences).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Between 13 October 2023 and 9 November 2023" with a closing date of 30 October 2023. This is due to the return to work by all UAW employees per the UAW and reporting from the Big 3, the last being General Motors.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 29 September 2023 0%
Between 29 September 2023 and 12 October 2023 0%
Between 13 October 2023 and 9 November 2023 87%
Between 10 November 2023 and 21 December 2023 11%
Not before 22 December 2023 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 50
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 239
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 346
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username