Started Oct 18, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC

Before 1 November 2017, will the US impose economic sanctions on Iran for activities related to a nuclear program?

As part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which was signed in July 2015, the US lifted nuclear-related sanctions on Iran in exchange for Iran's agreeing to freeze its nuclear program (NY Times, US Department of the Treasury FAQ, Council on Foreign Relations, US Department of the Treasury Resource Center). Congressional Republicans have called for repeal of the JCPOA and one presidential candidate has promised to reinstate sanctions (Washington Post). Reimposition of sanctions lifted as part of the JCPOA will count, as would new sanctions punishing Iran for activity related to a nuclear program, including violations of the JCPOA or the NPT more broadly. Sanctions imposed for unrelated issues (e.g. The Guardian) will NOT count. Recommended Questions Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 400
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 1824
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.048
2.
-0.048
4.
-0.048
5.
-0.048

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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