When will North Korea next successfully put a satellite into orbit?

Started Sep 29, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 21, 2023 04:00PM UTC

As of 28 September, North Korea had twice failed in attempts to launch a spy satellite in 2023, but it plans to try again (NPR, AP). North Korea has previously put at least two satellites into orbit (38 North). The purpose and operability of a satellite put into orbit is immaterial.

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The question closed "Before 1 January 2024" with a closing date of 21 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2024 41%
Between 1 January 2024 and 31 March 2024 17%
Between 1 April 2024 and 30 June 2024 19%
Not before 1 July 2024 23%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 37
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 107
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.783413
2.
-0.733162
3.
-0.705826
4.
-0.675911
5.
-0.665465

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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