When will North Korea next successfully put a satellite into orbit?
Started
Sep 29, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 21, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 21, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Challenges
As of 28 September, North Korea had twice failed in attempts to launch a spy satellite in 2023, but it plans to try again (NPR, AP). North Korea has previously put at least two satellites into orbit (38 North). The purpose and operability of a satellite put into orbit is immaterial.
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The question closed "Before 1 January 2024" with a closing date of 21 November 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 1 January 2024 | 41% | |
| Between 1 January 2024 and 31 March 2024 | 17% | |
| Between 1 April 2024 and 30 June 2024 | 19% | |
| Not before 1 July 2024 | 23% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 37 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 183 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 107 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 533 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
