When will Sweden become a member of NATO?

Started Sep 29, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 07, 2024 04:30PM UTC

While Sweden submitted its application to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in May 2022, approval from Hungary and Turkey remain obstacles to membership (Al-Monitor, AP, NATO Parliamentary Assembly). The latest country to join NATO was Finland on 4 April 2023 (NATO).

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The question closed "Between 1 January 2024 and 31 March 2024" with a closing date of 7 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2024 0%
Between 1 January 2024 and 31 March 2024 93%
Between 1 April 2024 and 30 June 2024 6%
Not before 1 July 2024 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 110
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 577
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.197683
2.
-0.146588
3.
-0.146496
4.
-0.137541
5.
-0.125495

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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