How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from October 2023 through December 2023 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?

Started Sep 29, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
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A new surge of people illegally crossing the US border with Mexico has drawn new attention on US border security (US News & World Report, The Hill). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CBP for the calendar months of October 2023 through December 2023 once data for December 2023 are first reported (CBP). Between calendar October 2022 and December 2022, CBP reported a total of 719,056 encounters in the US southwest as of the launch of this question. Please note that calendar October 2023 through December 2023 falls within the US federal government fiscal year of 2024.

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The question closed "More than 650,000 but fewer than 800,000" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 200,000 1%
Between 200,000 and 350,000, inclusive 1%
More than 350,000 but fewer than 500,000 1%
Between 500,000 and 650,000, inclusive 2%
More than 650,000 but fewer than 800,000 81%
Between 800,000 and 950,000, inclusive 15%
More than 950,000 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 19
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 85
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.074736
2.
-0.05462
3.
-0.041816
4.
-0.040542
5.
-0.019945

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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