Before 1 October 2024, will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) execute a military strike within the territory of Iran?
Closed Apr 19, 2024 02:30AM UTC
Israel has stated that it would not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon, which is widely seen to include a possible military strike by Israel against Iran (ABC News, AP, The National). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on Iranian territory. A cyberattack alone would not count. Actions not executed by the IDF would not count (e.g., covert assassinations of nuclear scientists). A strike in or over Iranian territorial waters would not count.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 18 April 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 61% | |
No | 39% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 151 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 191 | |
Number of Forecasts | 569 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 550 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |