Before 1 October 2024, will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) execute a military strike within the territory of Iran?

Started Sep 29, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 19, 2024 02:30AM UTC

Israel has stated that it would not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon, which is widely seen to include a possible military strike by Israel against Iran (ABC News, AP, The National). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on Iranian territory. A cyberattack alone would not count. Actions not executed by the IDF would not count (e.g., covert assassinations of nuclear scientists). A strike in or over Iranian territorial waters would not count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 18 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 61%
No 39%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 151
Average for questions older than 6 months: 191
Number of Forecasts 569
Average for questions older than 6 months: 550
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.242608
4.
-1.199536
5.
-1.190384

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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