Will the jury find Sam Bankman-Fried guilty of any federal crime in his trial that began on 3 October 2023?

Started Oct 06, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 02, 2023 11:30PM UTC
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FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried's federal trial in the Southern District of New York began on 3 October 2023, in which he is facing seven criminal charges (NPR, Axios, CNN). A guilty or no contest plea without a verdict from the jury would not count. If the judge declares a mistrial or dismisses the charges, the question would close "No." The granting of a motion for a judgment of acquittal after the jury reaches a verdict would be immaterial, and appeals and litigation subsequent to a trial are immaterial (Cornell). If the trial is still underway as of the closing date of this question, the closing date will be extended.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 2 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 92%
No 8%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 57
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 182
Number of Forecasts 108
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 470
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.01
2.
-0.01
3.
-0.009
4.
-0.009
5.
-0.009

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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