Will the jury find Sam Bankman-Fried guilty of any federal crime in his trial that began on 3 October 2023?
Closed Nov 02, 2023 11:30PM UTC
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried's federal trial in the Southern District of New York began on 3 October 2023, in which he is facing seven criminal charges (NPR, Axios, CNN). A guilty or no contest plea without a verdict from the jury would not count. If the judge declares a mistrial or dismisses the charges, the question would close "No." The granting of a motion for a judgment of acquittal after the jury reaches a verdict would be immaterial, and appeals and litigation subsequent to a trial are immaterial (Cornell). If the trial is still underway as of the closing date of this question, the closing date will be extended.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 2 November 2023.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 92% | |
No | 8% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 57 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 183 | |
Number of Forecasts | 108 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 533 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |