How many of Ballotpedia's 14 "noteworthy" Republican candidates as of 5 October 2023 will have ceased to be presidential candidates as of 10 November 2023?

Started Oct 06, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 11, 2023 08:01AM UTC

As of 6 October 2023, the 14 "noteworthy" Republican candidates were Ryan Binkley, Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Larry Elder, Nikki Haley, Will Hurd, Asa Hutchinson, Perry Johnson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, Corey Stapleton, and Donald Trump (Ballotpedia, Politico). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that a candidate no longer seeks the Republican Party nomination for president or that a candidate is suspending his or her campaign. Ceasing to be a candidate on 10 November 2023 would count.

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The question closed "4 or 5" with a closing date of 11 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
None or 1 0%
2 or 3 0%
4 or 5 97%
6 or more 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 182
Number of Forecasts 260
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 470
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.249
2.
-0.233
3.
-0.156
4.
-0.082
5.
-0.06

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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