When will the leaders of China, Japan, and South Korea next hold a trilateral meeting in person?

Started Oct 06, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Efforts are reportedly underway to restart once-regular trilateral meetings between the leaders of China, Japan, and South Korea, with South Korea reportedly proposing a meeting in December 2023 (US News & World Report, Voice of America, Deutsche Welle). The location of the meeting is immaterial, so long as all three leaders are in the same room. A meeting held in concert with another event (e.g., G20 summit, state visit) would count so long as a meeting is held with the three leaders among themselves and their own respective entourages. For the purposes of this question, the leaders of Japan and South Korea are the prime minister and president, respectively, and a meeting without either leader would not count. As of the launch of this question, Li Qiang was the incumbent Premier of China, and Xi Jinping was the incumbent President of China. A meeting without either China's premier or president would not count, and a meeting with both China's premier and president would close "and the President of China will represent China."

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No meeting will take place before 1 April 2024" with a closing date of 1 April 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2024, and the Premier of China will represent China 0%
Before 1 January 2024, and the President of China will represent China 1%
Between 1 January 2024 and 31 March 2024, and the Premier of China will represent China 1%
Between 1 January 2024 and 31 March 2024, and the President of China will represent China 1%
No meeting will take place before 1 April 2024 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 44
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 167
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.195
2.
-0.189
3.
-0.187
4.
-0.143
5.
-0.136

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username