Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 October 2024?

Started Oct 06, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The PRC has continued military activities around Taiwan throughout 2023 (Al Jazeera, Council on Foreign Relations, BBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5%
No 95%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 144
Average for questions older than 6 months: 183
Number of Forecasts 492
Average for questions older than 6 months: 533
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.006331
2.
-0.006257
3.
-0.006221
4.
-0.006133
5.
-0.0061

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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