Between 9 October 2023 and 9 July 2024, will the UK or a European Union member state publicly accuse a group or entity the EU lists as a terrorist group or entity of perpetrating an attack within either the UK or EU resulting in at least one fatality?

Started Oct 08, 2023 11:30PM UTC
Closed Jul 10, 2024 07:01AM UTC

For the purposes of this question, the groups or entities that the EU lists as a terrorist group or entity are those listed in Council Decision (CFSP) 2023/1514 (EUR-Lex). An attack in the territorial waters or airspace of either the UK or a European Union member state would count. Both the attack and the accusation must occur during the question's open period to count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 10 July 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 99
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 457
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.194995
2.
-0.193312
3.
-0.18989
4.
-0.181531
5.
-0.180429

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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