Before 9 April 2024, will Israel publicly announce or acknowledge a hostage/prisoner exchange with a group holding one or more Israelis captured in the attack in southern Israel in early October 2023?

Started Oct 08, 2023 11:30PM UTC
Closed Nov 24, 2023 05:00PM UTC

Hamas, the de facto ruler of the Gaza Strip, has reportedly taken over 100 Israelis hostage during its attack on southern Israel in October 2023 (Guardian, NBC News). The exchange of persons must be completed to count, though it need not involve all captured Israelis. Releasing persons to third parties, including the transfer of jailed prisoners to other countries, in accordance with an agreement would count.

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NOTE 19 November 2023: There must be a public announcement or acknowledgment of an exchange of persons (i.e., people for people) to count.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 24 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 90%
No 10%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 68
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 232
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.496
2.
-0.496
5.
-0.467

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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