Before 13 June 2024, will the Federal Reserve announce a cut in the US federal funds rate?

Started Oct 11, 2023 09:00AM UTC
Closed Jun 13, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates to combat inflation, there are concerns whether the US will be pushed into recession (Yahoo Finance, CNBC). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market deteriorates, if inflation falls) would not count, and the date a cut would take effect is immaterial. The last time the Federal Reserve announced a cut to the US federal funds rate was 15 March 2020 (Federal Reserve).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 13 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 7%
No 93%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 351
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 1378
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.52243
3.
-0.509493
5.
-0.506546

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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