Will an end to diplomatic relations between Israel and Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and/or the UAE be officially announced before 1 January 2024?

Started Oct 13, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

As the Israeli conflict in the Gaza Strip escalates after attacks in southern Israel in early October 2023, there are concerns that diplomatic relations between Israel and various Arab states could suffer (Al Jazeera, Times of Israel, AP, New Arab). The expulsion or recalling of some individuals alone would not count (e.g., AP).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3%
No 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 82
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 263
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.0345
3.
-0.033719
4.
-0.033521
5.
-0.030839

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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