What will be the average daily crude oil production by Saudi Arabia in the first quarter of 2024?

Started Oct 13, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Saudi Arabia has maintained production cuts to support oil prices, but said it was working to maintain market stability in the wake of attacks in Israel by Iran-backed Hamas (AP, CNBC, Guardian). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2024 and the outcome determined using data for "Saudi Arabia" in the first quarter of 2024 as first reported in the "OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d" table of the "World Oil Supply" section of OPEC's April 2024 Monthly Oil Market Report (OPEC). The April 2023 report shows "Saudi Arabia" produced 10,354 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) in the first quarter of 2023 (OPEC - MOMR April 2023, see under "1Q23" in Table 5 - 7 on page 48).

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The question closed "Between 8,500 tb/d and 9,250 tb/d, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 7,000 tb/d 1%
Between 7,000 tb/d and 7,750 tb/d, inclusive 5%
More than 7,750 tb/d but fewer than 8,500 tb/d 6%
Between 8,500 tb/d and 9,250 tb/d, inclusive 75%
More than 9,250 tb/d but fewer than 10,000 tb/d 11%
Between 10,000 tb/d and 10,750 tb/d, inclusive 1%
More than 10,750 tb/d 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 49
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 115
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.120314
2.
-0.110039
3.
-0.107059
4.
-0.102773
5.
-0.079288

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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