Will Sen. Robert Menendez and/or Rep. George Santos cease to hold their respective seats in the US Congress before 15 January 2024?

Started Oct 20, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 15, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Democratic Senator Menendez is facing a growing list of federal charges related to bribery and corruption, while Republican Representative George Santos is dealing with a slew of charges related to fraud (Department of Justice - Menendez Charged, AP, Department of Justice - Santos Charged, NBC News).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Yes, only Rep. George Santos" with a closing date of 15 January 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, only Sen. Robert Menendez 0%
Yes, only Rep. George Santos 99%
Yes, both Sen. Robert Menendez and Rep. George Santos 1%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 65
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 256
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username