Will Sen. Robert Menendez and/or Rep. George Santos cease to hold their respective seats in the US Congress before 15 January 2024?
Closed Jan 15, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Democratic Senator Menendez is facing a growing list of federal charges related to bribery and corruption, while Republican Representative George Santos is dealing with a slew of charges related to fraud (Department of Justice - Menendez Charged, AP, Department of Justice - Santos Charged, NBC News).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes, only Rep. George Santos" with a closing date of 15 January 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, only Sen. Robert Menendez | 0% | |
| Yes, only Rep. George Santos | 99% | |
| Yes, both Sen. Robert Menendez and Rep. George Santos | 1% | |
| No | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 65 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 200 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 256 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 571 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
