Will Sen. Robert Menendez and/or Rep. George Santos cease to hold their respective seats in the US Congress before 15 January 2024?

Started Oct 20, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 15, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Democratic Senator Menendez is facing a growing list of federal charges related to bribery and corruption, while Republican Representative George Santos is dealing with a slew of charges related to fraud (Department of Justice - Menendez Charged, AP, Department of Justice - Santos Charged, NBC News).

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The question closed "Yes, only Rep. George Santos" with a closing date of 15 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, only Sen. Robert Menendez 0%
Yes, only Rep. George Santos 99%
Yes, both Sen. Robert Menendez and Rep. George Santos 1%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 65
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 182
Number of Forecasts 256
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 470
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.391
2.
-0.335
3.
-0.222
4.
-0.217
5.
-0.201

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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