What will be the closing yield for the Chinese 10-year bond on 13 November 2023?

Started Oct 25, 2023 09:00AM UTC
Closed Nov 13, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Fears are growing that China's troubled property sector may lead to continued problems in its financial system (US News & World Report, Xinhua, Guardian). The question will be suspended on 12 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics in the US (Trading Economics, set chart to "1Y" and hover cursor over the chart for data). The closing yield for the Chinese 10-year bond on 19 October 2023 was 2.7410%.

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The question closed "Between 2.520% and 2.660%, inclusive" with a closing date of 13 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2.520% 2%
Between 2.520% and 2.660%, inclusive 57%
More than 2.660% but less than 2.800% 39%
Between 2.800% and 2.940%, inclusive 2%
More than 2.940% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 104
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 182
Number of Forecasts 261
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 470
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.202
4.
-0.133
5.
-0.132

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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