SharpEdge asks:
When will Mike Johnson cease to be the Speaker of the US House of Representatives?
Started
Nov 03, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
After three weeks without a Speaker since Kevin McCarthy was ousted in early October 2023, House Republicans elected Louisiana Representative Mike Johnson to the post (House.gov, NBC News).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Not before 5 November 2024" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Before 4 March 2024 | 2% | |
Between 4 March 2024 and 4 July 2024 | 0% | |
Between 5 July 2024 and 4 November 2024 | 1% | |
Not before 5 November 2024 | 97% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 119 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188 | |
Number of Forecasts | 565 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 544 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |