SharpEdge asks:

When will Mike Johnson cease to be the Speaker of the US House of Representatives?

Started Nov 03, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

After three weeks without a Speaker since Kevin McCarthy was ousted in early October 2023, House Republicans elected Louisiana Representative Mike Johnson to the post (House.gov, NBC News).

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The question closed "Not before 5 November 2024" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 4 March 2024 2%
Between 4 March 2024 and 4 July 2024 0%
Between 5 July 2024 and 4 November 2024 1%
Not before 5 November 2024 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 119
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 565
Average for questions older than 6 months: 544
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.050591
2.
-0.050299
3.
-0.050197
4.
-0.049926
5.
-0.048306

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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