When will the United States publicly acknowledge that it has executed a military strike within the territory of Israel (including the Gaza Strip, Golan Heights, and the West Bank) or Lebanon?

Started Nov 03, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 08, 2024 08:01AM UTC

After Hamas' attack in southern Israel in early October 2023, the US has deployed forces to the Eastern Mediterranean and carried out air strikes against Iran-affiliated targets in Syria (Stars and Stripes, Military.com, NPR). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on or over pertinent territory. A cyberattack alone would not count, but a strike in, on, or over the airspace or territorial waters of Israel (including the Gaza Strip, Golan Heights, and the West Bank) or Lebanon would count. Any acknowledgment of a strike that would satisfy all of the elements of the question and conditions in the question description, including the discharge or detonation of a weapon, would count, irrespective of whether members of the US armed forces were "on the ground." If the US publicly acknowledges that it sent forces into a pertinent area without clearly stating whether weapons were discharged or detonated by US forces, credible open source reporting would be used to determine whether the US did indeed discharge or detonate a weapon. Both the strike and the acknowledgement must occur during the question's open period to count. US forces firing weapons defensively against drones or missiles that are in flight (i.e., to prevent them from reaching their target) in and of itself would not count, irrespective of the putative target of the drones or missiles.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Not before 8 March 2024" with a closing date of 8 March 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 15 December 2023 0%
Between 15 December 2023 and 25 January 2024 0%
Between 26 January 2024 and 7 March 2024 2%
Not before 8 March 2024 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 116
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 343
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.010348
3.
-0.010165
4.
-0.009755
5.
-0.009713

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username