Jenika1698215450 and The Economist ask:

Which candidate will win the 2024 Indonesian presidential election?

Started Nov 03, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 14, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Incumbent Indonesian President Joko Widodo is ineligible for reelection due to term limits, leaving three major candidates vying for the position (EconomistAP, Al Jazeera, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace). The 2024 presidential election scheduled for 14 February 2024 and a runoff on 26 June 2024 if needed (Jakarta Post - Election 2024). A forecast for a candidate who ceases to be a candidate would be considered a forecast for the replacement candidate chosen under Indonesian law. If the election (either round) is canceled or postponed to a date after 30 September 2024, the question will close "Another outcome."

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The question closed "Prabowo Subianto" with a closing date of 14 February 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Anies Baswedan 13%
Ganjar Pranowo 20%
Prabowo Subianto 66%
Another outcome 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 235
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 452
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.311
4.
-0.269
5.
-0.269

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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