When will Nikki Haley surpass either Ron DeSantis or Donald Trump in 2024 Republican presidential nomination support, according to RealClearPolitics?

Started Nov 08, 2023 10:00AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 11:00PM UTC

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has been rising slowly but steadily in the race for the Republican nomination (CNN). The question will be suspended on 12 January 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using data as reported by RealClearPolitics' RCP Poll Average for the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination (RealClearPolitics, set to "3M"). Chart data will be accessed for resolution as soon as data for 12 January 2024 are first reported, if necessary. If either DeSantis or Trump ceases to be a candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, the question will close as of the date the candidate ceased.

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The question closed "Between 22 December 2023 and 12 January 2024" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 30 November 2023 0%
Between 30 November 2023 and 21 December 2023 0%
Between 22 December 2023 and 12 January 2024 60%
Not before 13 January 2024 40%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 123
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 182
Number of Forecasts 543
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 470
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.285
3.
-0.248
4.
-0.246

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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