For how long will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to serve in prison for his November 2023 federal criminal convictions?

Started Nov 10, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 28, 2024 03:50PM UTC
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FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted on seven federal criminal counts in his 2023 trial in New York (CNBC, Yahoo, Bloomberg Law). Bankman-Fried's sentencing was scheduled for 28 March 2024 as of the launch of this question (CoinDesk). Whether Bankman-Fried is credited for time served, sentenced to supervision following release, or appeals either his conviction or sentence is immaterial, and one year equates to 12 months irrespective of what month the sentence would begin or end.

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The question closed "More than 20 years but less than 30 years" with a closing date of 28 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 10 years 5%
Between 10 years and 20 years, inclusive 34%
More than 20 years but less than 30 years 37%
30 years or more 23%
No sentencing will occur before 1 October 2024 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 45
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 130
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.12056
2.
-0.117894
3.
-0.109065
4.
-0.108181
5.
-0.106831

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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