For how long will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to serve in prison for his November 2023 federal criminal convictions?
Closed Mar 28, 2024 03:50PM UTC
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted on seven federal criminal counts in his 2023 trial in New York (CNBC, Yahoo, Bloomberg Law). Bankman-Fried's sentencing was scheduled for 28 March 2024 as of the launch of this question (CoinDesk). Whether Bankman-Fried is credited for time served, sentenced to supervision following release, or appeals either his conviction or sentence is immaterial, and one year equates to 12 months irrespective of what month the sentence would begin or end.
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The question closed "More than 20 years but less than 30 years" with a closing date of 28 March 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 10 years | 5% | |
| Between 10 years and 20 years, inclusive | 34% | |
| More than 20 years but less than 30 years | 37% | |
| 30 years or more | 23% | |
| No sentencing will occur before 1 October 2024 | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 45 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 130 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 584 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
