In Moore v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that the Mandatory Repatriation Tax (MRT) is unconstitutional as to the Moores?

Started Nov 10, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 20, 2024 02:00PM UTC

Created by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, the MRT requires that taxes be paid on certain corporate earnings and profits from controlled foreign corporations (i.e., foreign corporations that are majority owned by US persons) (Casetext - Moore v US 9th Circuit, Tax Foundation). The Moores, investors in an Indian company, challenged the MRT as unconstitutional because it was, among other things, beyond the scope of income taxes permitted by the 16th Amendment to the US Constitution (Oyez). The outcome of the case may touch on the constitutional viability of a federal "wealth tax" in the US (ABC News, Bloomberg Tax). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 20 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 32%
No 68%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 26
Average for questions older than 6 months: 200
Number of Forecasts 89
Average for questions older than 6 months: 571
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.324078
2.
-0.317278
3.
-0.248033
4.
-0.244643
5.
-0.224951

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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