The Economist asks:

What will be the percentage change in the world's GDP in 2024 relative to the world's GDP in 2023, according to the IMF in April 2024?

Started Nov 13, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As of October 2023, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated global GDP growth would be modest in 2024 amid worries about inflation, conflict, and other variables (IMF, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2024 and the outcome determined using IMF real GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2024, which is expected in April 2024. At the IMF website (IMF - World Economic Outlook Databases), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." World GDP percentage change in constant prices for 2023 was estimated to be 2.964% according to the October 2023 report (IMF - World Economic Outlook Database October 2023). The data may also be seen using the IMF's reporting tool here: IMF).

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The question closed "Higher by between 2.75% and 3.50%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 1.25% 3%
Higher by between 1.25% and 2.00%, inclusive 11%
Higher by more than 2.00% but less than 2.75% 29%
Higher by between 2.75% and 3.50%, inclusive 51%
Higher by more than 3.50% but less than 4.25% 5%
4.25% or higher 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 282
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 591
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.197772
2.
-0.196615
3.
-0.19601
4.
-0.191146
5.
-0.187129

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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