The Economist asks:
Between 1 October 2023 and 30 June 2024, will the eurozone experience two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth?
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Recession fears are high in Europe (Economist, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data from Eurostat for "GDP and main components (output, expenditure and income)," specifically for "Euro area (EA11-1999...EA20-2023)" (as amended) upon the release of the nonflash estimate for 2024Q2, expected in September 2024 (Eurostat - GDP and main components, Eurostat - Release Calendar). Set the "Seasonal adjustment" to "Seasonally and calendar adjusted data" and "Unit of measure" set to "Chain linked volumes (2010), million euro." As of the launch of this question, Eurostat reported a 2023-Q2 GDP of 2,781,929.3. The question would close early upon the reporting of final quarterly GDP data (i.e., nonflash estimate reported in subsequent order) reflecting two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No, and there will be zero quarters of negative real GDP growth" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 13% | |
No, but there will be at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth | 73% | |
No, and there will be zero quarters of negative real GDP growth | 14% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 326 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188 | |
Number of Forecasts | 820 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |