The Economist asks:

Between 1 October 2023 and 30 June 2024, will the eurozone experience two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth?

Started Nov 14, 2023 03:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Recession fears are high in Europe (Economist, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data from Eurostat for "GDP and main components (output, expenditure and income)," specifically for "Euro area (EA11-1999...EA20-2023)" (as amended) upon the release of the nonflash estimate for 2024Q2, expected in September 2024 (Eurostat - GDP and main components, Eurostat - Release Calendar). Set the "Seasonal adjustment" to "Seasonally and calendar adjusted data" and "Unit of measure" set to "Chain linked volumes (2010), million euro." As of the launch of this question, Eurostat reported a 2023-Q2 GDP of 2,781,929.3. The question would close early upon the reporting of final quarterly GDP data (i.e., nonflash estimate reported in subsequent order) reflecting two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 17.22% -0.02% -0.78% -6.70%
No, but there will be at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth 67.46% +0.09% +1.46% +10.48%
No, and there will be zero quarters of negative real GDP growth 15.33% -0.06% -0.67% -3.76%

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