Will Moody's downgrade its long-term credit rating for the United States before 18 May 2024?
Closed May 18, 2024 07:01AM UTC
On 10 November 2023, Moody's Investor Service (Moody's) changed its ratings outlook to negative, citing higher interest rates and fiscal deficits (The Hill, CNBC). Moody's, one of the "Big Three" global credit rating agencies that assigns ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts, was the only member of the Big Three to have a AAA rating for the US as of the launch of this question (Investopedia, Trading Economics).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 18 May 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | |
| No | 93% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 109 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 200 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 242 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 571 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
