Will Moody's downgrade its long-term credit rating for the United States before 18 May 2024?

Started Nov 17, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 18, 2024 07:01AM UTC

On 10 November 2023, Moody's Investor Service (Moody's) changed its ratings outlook to negative, citing higher interest rates and fiscal deficits (The Hill, CNBC). Moody's, one of the "Big Three" global credit rating agencies that assigns ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts, was the only member of the Big Three to have a AAA rating for the US as of the launch of this question (Investopedia, Trading Economics).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 18 May 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 7%
No 93%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 109
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 242
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.127279
3.
-0.125701
4.
-0.123413
5.
-0.123413

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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