Pedro Sánchez was reelected as Spain's prime minister on 16 November 2023 after agreeing to push for a generally unpopular amnesty deal for Catalan separatists, including exiled leader Charles Puigdemont (AP, Guardian, France 24). For a return to Spain to count, Puigdemont's presence in Spain must be publicly known, and entering and leaving the country without it being publicly known that he's in the country would not count (Antena 3 [in Spanish]). Whether Puigdemont returns voluntarily is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 29 March 2024: Puigdemont publicly visiting Pheasant Island while it is under Spanish rule per the terms of the Treaty of the Pyrenees of 1659 would count (Condé Nast Traveler, Daily Mail).

The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 7 August 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.