janverkade asks:
When will a new Dutch government be sworn in?
Closing Oct 23, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The nationalist Freedom Party (PVV) won the most seats in the Dutch general elections held on 22 November 2023, setting the stage for a potentially difficult path to forming a government (aka cabinet) (Politico, AP, Dutch House of Representatives - Cabinet). After the 2017 election, it took parties a then-record 255 days from the election to form a government, with government formation after the 2021 election taking 299 days (Dutch News, Anadolu Agency). A caretaker government will not count, and whether new elections are called is immaterial.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 17 January 2024 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Between 17 January 2024 and 26 March 2024 | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1.40% |
| Between 27 March 2024 and 4 June 2024 | 18.50% | -0.31% | -2.50% | -14.83% |
| Between 5 June 2024 and 13 August 2024 | 37.81% | +0.31% | +0.56% | +6.94% |
| Between 14 August 2024 and 22 October 2024 | 22.69% | 0% | +0.81% | +5.69% |
| Not before 23 October 2024 | 21.00% | 0% | +1.12% | +3.60% |