janverkade asks:

When will a new Dutch government be sworn in?

Started Nov 24, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 02, 2024 02:00PM UTC

The nationalist Freedom Party (PVV) won the most seats in the Dutch general elections held on 22 November 2023, setting the stage for a potentially difficult path to forming a government (aka cabinet) (Politico, AP, Dutch House of Representatives - Cabinet). After the 2017 election, it took parties a then-record 255 days from the election to form a government, with government formation after the 2021 election taking 299 days (Dutch News, Anadolu Agency). A caretaker government will not count, and whether new elections are called is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Between 5 June 2024 and 13 August 2024" with a closing date of 2 July 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 17 January 2024 0%
Between 17 January 2024 and 26 March 2024 0%
Between 27 March 2024 and 4 June 2024 0%
Between 5 June 2024 and 13 August 2024 98%
Between 14 August 2024 and 22 October 2024 1%
Not before 23 October 2024 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 42
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 303
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.152219
2.
-0.146049
3.
-0.112385
4.
-0.08006
5.
-0.064547

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username