janverkade asks:

When will a new Dutch government be sworn in?

Started Nov 24, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 02, 2024 02:00PM UTC

The nationalist Freedom Party (PVV) won the most seats in the Dutch general elections held on 22 November 2023, setting the stage for a potentially difficult path to forming a government (aka cabinet) (Politico, AP, Dutch House of Representatives - Cabinet). After the 2017 election, it took parties a then-record 255 days from the election to form a government, with government formation after the 2021 election taking 299 days (Dutch News, Anadolu Agency). A caretaker government will not count, and whether new elections are called is immaterial.

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The question closed "Between 5 June 2024 and 13 August 2024" with a closing date of 2 July 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 17 January 2024 0%
Between 17 January 2024 and 26 March 2024 0%
Between 27 March 2024 and 4 June 2024 0%
Between 5 June 2024 and 13 August 2024 98%
Between 14 August 2024 and 22 October 2024 1%
Not before 23 October 2024 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 42
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 303
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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