How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in the first quarter of 2024?

Started Dec 01, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Despite the strikes at the "Big Three" automakers in September and October 2023, US vehicle sales have remained relatively firm (CNN, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2024 and the outcome determined by adding monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis for January, February, and March 2024 as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) once March 2024 data are first available, expected in April 2024 (FRED).

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The question closed "Between 3.8 million and 4.1 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 3.2 million 0%
Between 3.2 million and 3.5 million, inclusive 4%
More than 3.5 million but fewer than 3.8 million 50%
Between 3.8 million and 4.1 million, inclusive 38%
More than 4.1 million but fewer than 4.4 million 7%
4.4 million or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 66
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 180
Number of Forecasts 217
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 465
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.094
4.
-0.076
5.
-0.074

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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