What will be the annualized rate of US housing starts for February 2024?

Started Dec 01, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The rate of housing starts, a measure of new home construction in the US, has trended down since May 2023 as interest rates price many potential homebuyers out of the market (US News & World Report, Finance & Commerce). The question will be suspended on 29 February 2024 and the outcome determined using data provided by the US Census Bureau as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for February 2024, expected in March 2024 (FRED). As of the launch of this question, housing starts totaled 1.436 million in February 2023.

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The question closed "Between 1.50 million and 1.65 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 1.20 million 5%
Between 1.20 million and 1.35 million, inclusive 19%
More than 1.35 million but fewer than 1.50 million 47%
Between 1.50 million and 1.65 million, inclusive 22%
More than 1.65 million but fewer than 1.80 million 6%
1.80 million or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 66
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 180
Number of Forecasts 186
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 465
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.162
2.
-0.124
3.
-0.105

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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