Foxes ask:

Who will win the special election for New York's 3rd Congressional District in 2024?

Started Dec 08, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 13, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Representative George Santos was expelled from the House of Representatives on 1 December 2023, creating a vacancy to be filled by a special election in early 2024 (CBS News, Politico, CBS New York).

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The question closed "The Democratic Party candidate" with a closing date of 13 February 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
The Democratic Party candidate 70%
The Republican Party candidate 29%
Someone else 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 71
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 151
Number of Forecasts 127
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 339
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.101
2.
-0.098
4.
-0.094
5.
-0.094

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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