hollyhock asks:

Who will be sworn in as the next prime minister of the Netherlands?

Started Dec 08, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 02, 2024 02:00PM UTC

The nationalist Freedom Party (PVV) led by Geert Wilders won the most seats in the Dutch general elections held on 22 November 2023, setting the stage for a potentially difficult path to forming a government (aka cabinet) (AP, BBC, Dutch House of Representatives - Cabinet). The appointment of a new caretaker prime minister would not count.

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NOTE 20 February 2024: For the purposes of this question, any person who was on a party's list in the 2023 election is considered to be a member of that party.

NOTE 15 May 2024: If a person who was not on a party's list in the 2023 election is appointed prime minister, the question will close "Someone else."

The question closed "Someone else" with a closing date of 2 July 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Geert Wilders of the Freedom Party (PVV) 0%
Another member of the Freedom Party (PVV) 2%
A member of either the Green Left Party (GL) or Labour Party (PvdA) 1%
A member of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) 1%
Someone else 93%
No new prime minister will be sworn in before 23 November 2024 or new elections will be called 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 36
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 183
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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