hollyhock asks:

Who will be sworn in as the next prime minister of the Netherlands?

Started Dec 08, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 02, 2024 02:00PM UTC

The nationalist Freedom Party (PVV) led by Geert Wilders won the most seats in the Dutch general elections held on 22 November 2023, setting the stage for a potentially difficult path to forming a government (aka cabinet) (AP, BBC, Dutch House of Representatives - Cabinet). The appointment of a new caretaker prime minister would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 20 February 2024: For the purposes of this question, any person who was on a party's list in the 2023 election is considered to be a member of that party.

NOTE 15 May 2024: If a person who was not on a party's list in the 2023 election is appointed prime minister, the question will close "Someone else."


The question closed "Someone else" with a closing date of 2 July 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Geert Wilders of the Freedom Party (PVV) 0%
Another member of the Freedom Party (PVV) 2%
A member of either the Green Left Party (GL) or Labour Party (PvdA) 1%
A member of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) 1%
Someone else 93%
No new prime minister will be sworn in before 23 November 2024 or new elections will be called 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 36
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 183
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.497189
2.
-0.475127
3.
-0.320053
4.
-0.316719
5.
-0.31226

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username