hollyhock asks:
Who will be sworn in as the next prime minister of the Netherlands?
Closed Jul 02, 2024 02:00PM UTC
The nationalist Freedom Party (PVV) led by Geert Wilders won the most seats in the Dutch general elections held on 22 November 2023, setting the stage for a potentially difficult path to forming a government (aka cabinet) (AP, BBC, Dutch House of Representatives - Cabinet). The appointment of a new caretaker prime minister would not count.
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NOTE 20 February 2024: For the purposes of this question, any person who was on a party's list in the 2023 election is considered to be a member of that party.
NOTE 15 May 2024: If a person who was not on a party's list in the 2023 election is appointed prime minister, the question will close "Someone else."
The question closed "Someone else" with a closing date of 2 July 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Geert Wilders of the Freedom Party (PVV) | 0% | |
Another member of the Freedom Party (PVV) | 2% | |
A member of either the Green Left Party (GL) or Labour Party (PvdA) | 1% | |
A member of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) | 1% | |
Someone else | 93% | |
No new prime minister will be sworn in before 23 November 2024 or new elections will be called | 3% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 36 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188 | |
Number of Forecasts | 183 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |